人工智能可以预测你是否会很快死亡...

近日，据《新科学家》（New Scientist）报道，美国一项最新研究表明，人工智能（Artificial intelligence）能够通过查看一个人的心脏检查结果，预测其一年之内死亡的风险——即便医生认为他们正常。

该研究发表在国际学术会议——美国心脏协会年度科学会议（the American Heart Association’s Scientific Sessions）上。

AI can predict if you'll die soon – but we've no idea how it works

New Scientist

Artificial intelligence can predict a person's chances of dying within a year by looking at heart test results – even when they look normal to doctors. How it does so is a mystery.

Brandon Fornwalt at healthcare provider Geisinger in Pennsylvania, US and colleagues tasked an AI with examining 1.77 million electrocardiogram (ECG) results from nearly 400,000 people to predict who was at a higher risk of dying within the next year.

task

作动词，表示“交给某人（任务）；派给某人（工作）”，英文解释为“to give sb a task to do”举个🌰：

Jane was tasked with running a charity basketball tournament.

简被委以举办一场慈善篮球赛的任务。

ECG

ECG，即Electrocardiogram的缩写， /ɪˌlɛktrəʊˈkɑːdɪəʊˌɡræm/（a graphical recording of the cardiac cycle produced by an electrocardiograph）心电图；

Electrocardiograph /ɪˌlɛktrəʊˈkɑːdɪəʊˌɡrɑːf, -ˌɡræf/ （an instrument for recording the electrical activity of the heart）心电图机

An ECG records the electrical activity of the heart. Its pattern changes in cardiac conditions including heart attacks and atrial fibrillation.

cardiac

表示“心脏的”，英文解释为“Cardiac means relating to the heart.”举个🌰：

The man was suffering from cardiac weakness. 

这人当时正患心脏衰弱。

fibrillation

表示“肌纤维震颤”，英文解释为“a local and uncontrollable twitching of muscle fibres, esp of the heart, not affecting the entire muscle. Atrial fibrillation【心房颤动】 results in rapid and irregular heart and pulse rate. In ventricular fibrillation【心室纤维性颤动】, the heart stops beating.”。

The team trained two versions of the AI: in one, the algorithm was only given the raw ECG data, which measures voltage over time. In the other, it was fed ECG data in combination with patient age and sex.

They measured the AI’s performance using a metric known as AUC, which measures how well a model distinguishes between two groups of people – in this case, patients who died within a year and those who survived. The AI consistently scored above 0.85, where a perfect score is 1 and a score of 0.5 indicates no distinction between the two groups.

AUC

AUC（Area Under Curve）被定义为ROC曲线下与坐标轴围成的面积，显然这个面积的数值不会大于1。又由于ROC曲线一般都处于y=x这条直线的上方，所以AUC的取值范围在0.5和1之间。AUC越接近1.0，检测方法真实性越高;等于0.5时，则真实性最低，无应用价值。

The AUCs for risk scoring models currently used by doctors range between 0.65 and 0.8, says Fornwalt.

For comparison, the researchers also created an algorithm based on ECG features that doctors currently measure, such as certain patterns from the recordings.

“No matter what, the voltage-based model was always better than any model you could build out of things that we already measure from an ECG,” says Fornwalt.

The AI accurately predicted risk of death even in people deemed by cardiologists to have a normal ECG. Three cardiologists who separately reviewed normal-looking ECGs weren’t able to pick up the risk patterns that the AI detected.

deem

表示“认为; 相信”，英文解释为“If something is deemed to have a particular quality or to do a particular thing, it is considered to have that quality or do that thing.”举个🌰：

He says he would support the use of force if the UN deemed it necessary. 

他说如果联合国认为有必要，他就支持动用武力。

cardiologist

A cardiologist is a doctor who specializes in the heart and its diseases. 心内科医生

pick up

表示“发现; 识别”，英文解释为“If you pick up something, such as a feature or a pattern, you discover or identify it.”举个🌰：

Some groups of consumers are slow to pick up trends in the use of information technology. 

有些顾客群对信息技术应用方面的潮流反应迟钝。

“That finding suggests that the model is seeing things that humans probably can’t see, or at least that we just ignore and think are normal,” says Fornwalt.

“AI can potentially teach us things that we’ve been maybe misinterpreting for decades,” he says.

misinterpret

表示“误解”，英文解释为“If you misinterpret something, you understand it wrongly.”举个🌰：

He was amazed that he'd misinterpreted the situation so completely. 

他对自己完全误解了形势感到很吃惊。

It’s still unclear what patterns the AI is picking up, which makes some physicians reluctant to use such algorithms.

reluctant

表示“不愿意的; 勉强的”，英文解释为“If you are reluctant to do something, you are unwilling to do it and hesitate before doing it, or do it slowly and without enthusiasm.”举个🌰：

Mr. Spero was reluctant to ask for help. 

斯珀洛先生不愿意请求帮助。

This research was based on historical data, and it will be important to demonstrate in clinical studies that such an algorithm improves patient outcomes, says collaborator Christopher Haggerty.

clinical

1) 表示“临床的”，英文解释为“Clinical means involving or relating to the direct medical treatment or testing of patients.”举个🌰：

The first clinical trials were expected to begin next year. 

第一批临床试验预计明年开始。

2) 表示“无人情味的”，英文解释为“You use clinical to describe thought or behaviour that is very logical and does not involve any emotion.”举个🌰：

All this questioning is so clinical – it kills romance. 

所有这些发问是如此如此无人情味–使浪漫荡然无存。

The research will be presented at the American Heart Association’s Scientific Sessions in Dallas on November 16.

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